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Finalist: Yaroslav Trofimov and the Staff of The Wall Street Journal

For probing, deeply reported stories on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, including exclusive interviews conducted before the Taliban’s return, casting new light on what happened in the country and what might come next.

Nominated Work

August 20, 2021

A lack of urgency in the U.S. and Afghanistan led many to believe the capital city had more time

By Yaroslav Trofimov, Vivian Salama and Dion Nissenbaum

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank technocrat and author of the book “Fixing Failed States,” gathered officials on Saturday, Aug. 7, for a conference on improving relations between the attorney general’s office and local officials. He spent much of the rest of the day on the emerald-green lawn of the presidential palace, reading a book, according to a palace official.

By then, the Afghan state was collapsing. The number of local districts under Kabul’s control was diminishing almost by the hour. Kunduz, the biggest city in the northeast, fell the following night. Within 24 hours, other provincial capitals followed, many without a fight. Taliban fighters seized bases full of U.S.-supplied arms and turned them on a demoralized Afghan army unable to resupply troops with weapons, food or water.

President Biden was at his home in Wilmington, Del., where he played a round of golf at the Fieldstone Golf Club and then held a virtual meeting with Team USA to congratulate them on their performance at the Tokyo Olympics. The White House said he was briefed on Afghanistan in between.

The U.S. Embassy on Sunday, Aug. 8, said Americans should leave Afghanistan on the first available flight. Afghans who knew they would be hunted down in a Taliban takeover talked of fleeing. Yet plenty of spaces remained on outbound flights.

The thinking was that the insurgents wouldn’t attack Kabul before the U.S. military withdrawal slated for Aug. 31. Many Washington officials were on vacation, and the attention of those in town focused on the infrastructure bill.

In Kabul, Zara, a 25-year-old English teacher, looked at escape options but kept to her daily routine. “Everything was totally normal,” she said. “We thought it would take three to four months.”

Powerful warlords who had fought against the Taliban before the 2001 U.S.-led invasion mobilized their militias, filling in for deserting troops and inspiring confidence among many Afghans. In the western city of Herat, gray-bearded warlord Ismail Khan, Kalashnikov in hand, prepared to protect the city. Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum, notorious in 2001 for sealing Taliban prisoners in containers to die, and Tajik commander Atta Mohammad Noor organized the defenses of the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif.

But cracks appeared. Officials now peppered conversations with reminiscences of how this or that senior Taliban commander was a best friend from childhood and that they had kept in touch.

On Tuesday, Aug. 10, Finance Minister Khalid Payenda quit his job and flew out of the country, tweeting that “it was time to step down to attend to personal priorities.” Alarmed by a snowballing exodus, Mr. Ghani instructed the airport not to allow senior officials to leave Afghanistan. He told the passport office to stop renewing or issuing passports for 20 days, senior officials said.

That afternoon, Afghan Foreign Minister Haneef Atmar consulted with the U.S. chargé d’affaires, Ross Wilson. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal after the meeting, Mr. Atmar acknowledged that Kabul was surprised by the speed of the Taliban advance. He also spoke with confidence about turning the tide with armed drones and reshaping the war strategy to focus on defending major cities. He complained about a “panic mood among some actors,” when asked about evacuation preparations and the advice from foreign missions for their citizens to leave the country.

In Washington, Mr. Biden celebrated the passage of the infrastructure bill by the Senate. Asked about Afghanistan, he said, “Afghan leaders have to come together.” He added that he didn’t regret his decision in spring to withdraw all U.S. forces.

By Wednesday, Aug. 11, Mazar-e-Sharif was an isolated island in a sea of Taliban, accessible only by air. The local army corps commander asked to be relieved. Mr. Ghani, along with Mr. Dostum and other warlords, flew there.

Afghanistan’s commander-in-chief made no public remarks to rally the troops or raise the morale of residents that day. Instead, he talked about how militia members could now be paid via mobile-phone apps, officials said.

In contrast, Mr. Dostum in a speech pledged to regain northern Afghanistan from the Taliban now that he was in charge again. “All the people will stand up against them,” he said. He boasted that the Taliban couldn’t defeat him “even if they brought all of Pakistan.”

Decision-making had long been concentrated in the hands of Mr. Ghani’s national security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, a 38-year-old former ambassador to Washington with no military training. Mr. Mohib spent his days calling battlefield commanders, bypassing the military chain of command.

While the Taliban swept regions in the north, the insurgents that Wednesday also made a push for the city of Ghazni, south of Kabul. With little will to fight, the provincial governor, Daud Laghmani, negotiated a surrender in exchange for safe passage. He presented his Taliban successor with flowers. Taliban fighters escorted Mr. Laghmani’s convoy of SUVs to the border of the neighboring province, where he was arrested for treason.

The downfall of Ghazni opened a southern approach to Kabul and marked a turning point in the Taliban advance. “After Ghazni fell then we really couldn’t hold anything,” a palace official said.

Many Afghans saw that the Taliban might not wait for the American departure. Flights sold out, and black-market prices for visas surged. Thousands of people crowded passport offices in Kabul, despite Mr. Ghani’s order to stop issuing or renewing them.

Washington projected confidence. Afghan security forces “have the equipment, numbers, and training to fight back,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters on Wednesday afternoon. By then, the State Department had asked the American Embassy to destroy sensitive documents.

Taliban promises

Since striking the February 2020 deal for the withdrawal of American troops, Taliban leaders assured U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad that they wouldn’t try to seize Kabul by force. They told Mr. Khalilzad, one of the few Trump administration officials who remained under Mr. Biden, they would seek a power-sharing deal with political forces in Kabul.

Their main condition was for Mr. Ghani to resign before the forming of a transitional government. Mr. Ghani demanded a cease-fire first.

By Thursday, Aug. 12, the defenses of Herat had crumbled. Taliban fighters, hiding in the city, spread through neighborhoods. Mr. Khan, the warlord intending to protect Herat, was captured by militants. He was made to speak on camera. “This all happened so instantly,” he said, shaken. He urged soldiers elsewhere to lay down their arms. In the southern city of Kandahar, the Taliban’s spiritual birthplace, government forces dissolved overnight.

In Kabul, Mr. Ghani convened a meeting with political leaders, including chief negotiator Abdullah Abdullah, who had just returned from talks with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar. Mr. Ghani asked the foreign ministry for his passport, and speculation swirled that the Afghan president would resign.

Mr. Biden on that Thursday discussed Afghanistan and other national security matters with his intelligence team. He returned early in the afternoon to his home in Wilmington, Del., to continue an end-of-summer getaway.

Shortly after the president’s departure, State Department spokesman Ned Price announced that the U.S., faced with unexpectedly rapid gains by the Taliban, would dramatically scale down its embassy in Kabul and send about 3,000 troops to aid the diplomatic staff. The embassy, he said, would continue operating in the Afghan capital’s Green Zone.

Behind the scenes, Biden administration officials were devastated by the unfolding chaos in Afghanistan, and the danger the Taliban posed to Afghans who had worked for two decades alongside U.S. soldiers and diplomats as translators, fixers and drivers, among other roles.

In a call with Mr. Ghani, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed what limited military support the U.S. could provide. They pressed Mr. Ghani to move quickly in talks with the Taliban, who offered a two-week transition to a new government if the Afghan president stepped down, according to U.S. and Afghan officials.

On Friday, Aug. 13, Kabul was in a panic. ATMs ran out of cash. The swanky Shahr-e-Naw neighborhood filled with people who had fled the Taliban advance. Soldiers from routed units sat in roadside cafes, enjoying mango juice and ice cream, trading stories of betrayal and defeat. “The Taliban are our brothers. I would be happy if they joined the military,” said Gul Mohammad, a 25-year-old officer who had arrived from Kunduz days earlier.

Embassies in Kabul’s Green Zone started packing. On the street where the foreign minister, Mr. Atmar, lived, between the British and Canadian embassies, staffers carted away wheelbarrows of crockery and household items. Expats hauled suitcases to convoys bound for the helicopter landing zone.

In his first public remarks since the start of what would be the Afghan republic’s final week, Mr. Ghani released a two-minute video. He hinted at decisions that would follow talks with the Taliban and other politicians. He also said the government’s priority was to rebuild national security forces to preserve the past 20 years of achievements.

Safe passage

Zara went for a long swim that Friday afternoon to unwind. She wanted to make the most of the women-only pool while it was still open. “Let’s swim a little longer today because the Taliban could be here at any moment,” another pool regular told her.

“I hoped that, maybe, I could go a few more times,” said Zara, who asked to use only one name.

After her swim, Zara went to a downtown cafe, a popular hangout spot for young Afghans. She met a young man, her best friend, who wanted her help with an economics paper. They ordered two cappuccinos. Their conversation turned to the fate of Kabul. They made plans to meet again, hoping the city would hold out a few more days.

Pentagon spokesman John F. Kirby said in a briefing that night, “Kabul is not, right now, in an imminent-threat environment.”

On Saturday, Aug. 14, the Taliban attacked the eastern city of Jalalabad. Mr. Mohib, Afghanistan’s national security adviser, asked American officials whether they would be able to guarantee him safe passage in the embassy evacuations, a person at the meeting said. He was told his wife, a U.S. citizen, should apply on his behalf, and her request would be promptly assessed, the person said.

Mr. Ghani continued to project confidence in public. He posted pictures of himself touring military positions in the city with the defense minister. He discussed defense plans at the presidential palace with the new U.S. forces commander, Rear Adm. Peter Vasely.

Behind closed doors, Mr. Ghani said in a meeting with tribal leaders and elders from the provinces that he was prepared to resign and cede power to a transitional government. Given the Taliban’s battlefield victories, it was clear to everyone that such a government would be controlled by the Islamist movement.

Later that day, Mr. Ghani delivered the same message in a phone call with Mr. Blinken, according to senior Afghan officials. Mr. Blinken was relieved by the news and promised to work with Mr. Ghani to cement a deal with Taliban negotiators in Doha, these officials said. Mr. Ghani told Mr. Blinken he had no plans to leave Afghanistan, according to U.S. and Afghan officials.

Taliban leaders indicated they would be ready for a two-week cease-fire to enable a traditional gathering of elders and notables, known as a Loya Jirga, to pick a new administration, a senior government negotiator said.

On that Saturday around noon, two men in Taliban-style clothes and wearing high-top sneakers favored by militants rode a motorcycle to the entrance of the Green Zone in Kabul. The man sitting behind was filming on his phone. Police at the checkpoint either didn’t see or didn’t care. Similar sightings popped up around the city.

Zara bumped into a terrified neighbor. “The Taliban are here, they are in Kabul,” she warned. Zara got dressed and hurried to the bank. “I thought, I need to withdraw money. But there was no money in the bank,” she said.

Zara went to the grocery store to buy enough rice, cheese and grains to last her and her family of seven for a week. By the time she made it to the shop there were no fresh vegetables. Kabul University, where Zara’s sister was enrolled, announced it was closed until further notice.

By the evening, the city of Mazar-e-Sharif had fallen. Messrs. Atta and Dostum, once-fearsome warlords, fled with their men across the bridge over the Amu Darya river to Uzbekistan, leaving a long convoy of SUVs, police Ford Rangers and Humvees in front of the border gates, vehicles that would be later collected by the Taliban.

Overnight, the hum of helicopters ferrying people and equipment from the American embassy to the U.S.-controlled airport continued without a break. Commercial airlines were still flying.

At 4 a.m., Zara was startled awake with good news. A friend had secured an 8:30 a.m. flight to Turkey. The catch was that she needed to show a negative Covid-19 test. By the time she got her certificate, it was too late.

Sunday morning was sunny. People formed a long line outside the central bank, the last place rumored to still have cash. “The government has betrayed the people,” said Mirwais, a Kabul teacher. “This is why I am standing here today.”

There was sporadic gunfire but no signs of a Taliban advance. Mr. Ghani posted a short, rambling video message, saying security forces were coordinating. “I assure all residents of Kabul that you,” he said, with the message ending midsentence.

At the request of Kabul’s negotiators, the Taliban, eager for a negotiated deal that would allow them to control Afghanistan without losing international recognition or aid, released a statement instructing their fighters not to enter Kabul.

Slipping away

Mr. Ghani’s chief of staff and another senior official met the president around midday in the palace, buoyed by what seemed an imminent agreement with the Taliban that would avert a battle for Kabul. Mr. Ghani complained he was tired and said he would go to his residence adjoining the palace for lunch and rest.

Mr. Mohib soon appeared at the residence as Mr. Ghani assessed warnings from his security team that a Taliban assassination squad was on palace grounds, behind the building, ready to shoot, said a person who was at the palace. No evidence of such a squad has been reported.

Around the same time, Mr. Mohib received a call from Khalil Haqqani, a Taliban leader. Everyone but you, the president, and Vice President Amrullah Saleh have made deals with us, Mr. Haqqani said. according to a senior Afghan official. The Taliban, Mr. Haqqani told Mr. Mohib, would accept only a full surrender

A presidential convoy then ferried Mr. Ghani, Mr. Mohib and a handful of close aides toward the nearby Defense Ministry. The convoy split into two groups.

Mr. Atmar, the foreign minister, had arrived earlier at the palace with Mr. Ghani’s passport. He followed one group to the Defense Ministry. Once there, he saw the president wasn’t in the vehicles and headed back to the palace, according to a senior official who spoke with him.

When Mr. Atmar arrived, he found it was abandoned. Mr. Ghani and his close aides had already boarded three armored helicopters and headed out of Afghanistan. Amid the coming-and-going of U.S. helicopters ferrying people from the American Embassy, the men had slipped away.

A person close to Mr. Ghani said that the decision to evacuate the president was taken by the head of the Presidential Guard, and that Mr. Ghani went along because he didn’t want an expected firefight in the palace to turn into a wider conflagration in Kabul.

The Afghan state, and any opportunity for a negotiated end to the war, had crumbled. Mr. Blinken, in a TV appearance, said the collapse of Afghan security forces “has happened more quickly than we anticipated.”

After word spread of Mr. Ghani’s departure, thousands of people rushed the airport. Some ministers, including Mr. Atmar, got flights.

By nightfall, looters seized abandoned police vehicles and rode through central Kabul. The Taliban’s senior leader in Doha, Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai, called the head of the presidential palace’s security.

It was time, he said, to hand over the keys.

Taliban fighters entered the city, raising the white flags of their Islamic Emirate. The Afghan republic was over.

Days later, Mr. Ghani surfaced in the United Arab Emirates.

Zara remained in Kabul.

Margherita Stancati and Jessica Donati contributed to this article.

 

August 14, 2021

Afghanistan’s military was molded to match American operations and collapsed without U.S. air support and intelligence

By Yaroslav Trofimov

KABUL—The Afghan government outpost in Imam Sahib, a district of northern Kunduz province, held out for two months after being surrounded by the Taliban. At first, elite commando units would come once a week on a resupply run. Then, these runs became more scarce, as did the supplies.

“In the last days, there was no food, no water and no weapons,” said trooper Taj Mohammad, 38. Fleeing in one armored personnel carrier and one Ford Ranger, the remaining men finally made a run to the relative safety of the provincial capital, which collapsed weeks later. They left behind another 11 APCs to the Taliban.

As district after district fell in this summer’s Taliban offensive, without much visible support from the Afghan national army and police forces, other soldiers simply made the calculation that it wasn’t worth fighting anymore—especially if the Taliban offered them safe passage home, as they usually did.

“Everyone just surrendered their guns and ran away,” said Rahimullah, a 25-year soldier who joined the army a year ago and served in the Shahr-e-Bozorg district of northeastern Badakhshan province. “We didn’t receive any help from the central government, and so the district fell without any fighting.”

Afghanistan’s national army and police forces, theoretically numbering 350,000 men and trained and equipped at huge cost by the U.S. and Western allies, were supposed to be a powerful deterrent to the Taliban. That is one reason why President Biden, when he announced in April his decision to withdraw all American forces from Afghanistan, expressed confidence in the Afghan military’s ability to hold ground.

“They’ll continue to fight valiantly, on behalf of Afghans, at great cost,” he said at the time.

The Afghan security forces have since then experienced a humiliating collapse, losing most of the country and the major cities of Kandahar and Herat in recent days. Taliban fighters on Sunday entered Kabul, freeing inmates at the city’s main prison.

President Biden said Saturday he would send approximately 5,000 U.S. troops to safely evacuate U.S. and allied personnel, a force slightly larger than the 3,000 personnel already in transit back to Afghanistan and the 1,000 already there, part of a massive effort to airlift Western diplomats and civilians as the country’s demoralized security forces offered no resistance.

This spectacular failure stemmed from built-in flaws of the Afghan military compounded by strategic blundering of the government of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. The Taliban, meanwhile, took advantage of the U.S.-sponsored peace talks to deceive Kabul about their intentions as they prepared and executed a lighting offensive.

The Afghan army fighting alongside American troops was molded to match the way the Americans operate. The U.S. military, the world’s most advanced, relies heavily on combining ground operations with air power, using aircraft to resupply outposts, strike targets, ferry the wounded, and collect reconnaissance and intelligence.

In the wake of President Biden’s withdrawal decision, the U.S. pulled its air support, intelligence and contractors servicing Afghanistan’s planes and helicopters. That meant the Afghan military simply couldn’t operate anymore. The same happened with another failed American effort, the South Vietnamese army in the 1970s, said retired Lt. Gen. Daniel Bolger, who commanded the U.S.-led coalition’s mission to train Afghan forces in 2011-2013.

“There is always a tendency to use the model you know, which is your own model,” said Gen. Bolger, who now teaches history at North Carolina State University. “When you build an army like that, and it’s meant to be a partner with a sophisticated force like the Americans, you can’t pull the Americans out all of a sudden, because then they lose the day-to-day assistance that they need,” he said.

When U.S. forces were still operating here, the Afghan government sought to maximize its presence through the country’s far-flung countryside, maintaining more than 200 bases and outposts that could be resupplied only by air. Extending government operations to the most of Afghanistan’s more than 400 districts has long been the main pillar of America’s counterinsurgency strategy.

Mr. Ghani had ample warning of the American departure after the Trump administration signed the February 2020 agreement with the Taliban that called on all U.S. forces and contractors to leave by May 2021. Yet, the Afghan government failed to adjust its military footprint to match the new reality. Many officials didn’t believe in their hearts that the Americans would actually leave.

“Politically it was suicide to leave certain regions, and to concentrate on certain others, and that made the Afghan army overstretched and critically dependent on close air support for logistics, medevac and combat operations,” Afghan Foreign Minister Haneef Atmar, who previously served as national-security adviser and interior minister, said in an interview.

“We did not have enough transition time to move from that arrangement to a new arrangement, to bring back forces from areas that are difficult to defend and to concentrate on the main population centers,” he added.

When the Taliban launched their offensive in May, they concentrated on overrunning those isolated outposts, massacring soldiers who were determined to resist but allowing safe conduct to those who surrendered, often via deals negotiated by local tribal elders. The Taliban gave pocket money to some of these troops, who had gone unpaid for months.

By the time the Taliban began their assault on major population centers this month, the Afghan military was so demoralized that it offered little resistance. Provincial leaders and senior commanders replicated surrender deals struck on the local level before. The elite commando units were one exception, but they were too few in number and lacked aircraft to move them around the country.

Mr. Ghani and his national-security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, were opposed to last year’s Doha agreement and expected the Biden administration to reverse course instead of doubling down on the deal struck by Mr. Trump.

Mr. Mohib, a British-educated former ambassador with no military experience, took direct control of military operations, calling unit commanders and issuing orders that bypassed the normal chain of command, according to several senior government officials and diplomats. He couldn’t be reached for comment.

For much of the past year, the Afghan minister of defense, replaced in June by veteran anti-Taliban commander Gen. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, was out of the country, receiving medical treatment in the United Arab Emirates. Mr. Ghani routinely sacked commanders. The latest chief of the army lasted less than two months.

The U.S.-sponsored peace talks in Doha allowed the Taliban to project themselves as a moderate, benevolent force just as Mr. Ghani’s political rivals in Kabul plotted to replace him with some sort of transitional administration that would facilitate a peace deal. Former President Hamid Karzai, in particular, tried to position himself as a neutral third force, frequently lashing out at Mr. Ghani and the U.S.

“The government ended up completely isolating many people,” said Hekmat Karzai, a former deputy foreign minister and a cousin of the former president. “It became a self-licking ice cream fantasy. It just talked to itself and had very senior positions led by very inexperienced people who hardly understood the reality,” he said.

“Do the troops have a reason to fight?” he asked. “I feel that the Taliban isn’t enormously strong. It’s that the government is in disarray.”

Andrew Watkins, senior analyst for Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group, a research and advocacy organization, said that there was no evidence the Taliban had increased their manpower to launch this summer’s offensive, apart from tapping some of the 5,000 insurgent detainees who had been released under the Doha agreement.

What changed between February 2020 and Mr. Biden’s withdrawal announcement was an end to American airstrikes that used to exact a heavy toll on insurgent fighters, he noted.

“The Doha agreement bought the Taliban a one year reprieve,” said Mr. Watkins. “They were able to regroup, plan, strengthen their supply lines, have freedom of movement, without fear of American bombardment.”

When the insurgents struck, after suggesting in public that they won’t attack big cities while peace talks continue, the blow was overwhelming.

“When the Kunduz province fell to the Taliban, so many soldiers were killed. We were surrounded,” said Abdul Qudus, a 29-year-old soldier who managed to make his way to Kabul in the past week. “There was no air support. In the last minutes, our commander told us that they cannot do anything for us and it’s just better to run away. Everyone left the war and escaped.”

Saeed Shah contributed to this article.

 

November 28, 2021

By Yaroslav Trofimov and Margherita Stancati

KABUL—Undercover Taliban agents—often clean-shaven, dressed in jeans and sporting sunglasses—spent years infiltrating Afghan government ministries, universities, businesses and aid organizations.

Then, as U.S. forces were completing their withdrawal in August, these operatives stepped out of the shadows in Kabul and other big cities across Afghanistan, surprising their neighbors and colleagues. Pulling their weapons from hiding, they helped the Taliban rapidly seize control from the inside.

The pivotal role played by these clandestine cells is becoming apparent only now, three months after the U.S. pullout. At the time, Afghan cities fell one after another like dominoes with little resistance from the American-backed government’s troops. Kabul collapsed in a matter of hours, with hardly a shot fired.

“We had agents in every organization and department,” boasted Mawlawi Mohammad Salim Saad, a senior Taliban leader who directed suicide-bombing operations and assassinations inside the Afghan capital before its fall. “The units we had already present in Kabul took control of the strategic locations.”

Mr. Saad’s men belong to the so-called Badri force of the Haqqani network, a part of the Taliban that is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. because of its links to al Qaeda. Sitting before a bank of closed-circuit TV monitors in the Kabul airport security command center, which he now oversees, he said, “We had people even in the office that I am occupying today.”

The 20-year war in Afghanistan was often seen as a fight between bands of Taliban insurgents—bearded men operating from mountain hide-outs—and Afghan and U.S. forces struggling to control rural terrain. The endgame, however, was won by a large underground network of urban operatives.

On Aug. 15, after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled Kabul, it was these men who seized the capital city while the Taliban’s more conventional forces remained outside.

Mohammad Rahim Omari, a midlevel commander in the Badri force, was working undercover at his family’s gasoline-trading business in Kabul before he was called into action that day. He said he and 12 others were dispatched to an Afghan intelligence service compound in the east of the city, where they disarmed the officers on duty and stopped them from destroying computers and files.

Other cells fanned out to seize other government and military installations and reached Kabul airport, where the U.S. was mounting a massive evacuation effort. They took control of the airport’s perimeter until better-armed Taliban troops arrived from the countryside in the morning. One agent, Mullah Rahim, was even dispatched to secure the Afghan Institute of Archaeology and its treasures from potential looters.

Mr. Omari said the Badri force had compartmentalized cells working on different tasks—armed fighters, fundraisers and those involved with propaganda and recruitment.

“Now these three types of mujahedeen have reunited,” he said. Mr. Omari himself is now deputy police chief in Kabul’s 12th District.

Their success has helped boost the influence of the Haqqanis within the overall Taliban movement. Badri was founded by Badruddin Haqqani, who was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Pakistan in 2012. It now is under the ultimate command of his brother, Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is in charge of Afghanistan’s internal security as its new interior minister.

Named after the Battle of Badr that was won by Prophet Muhammad in 624, the Badri force includes several subgroups. The best known is its special-operations unit, Badri 313, whose fighters in high-end helmets and body armor were deployed next to U.S. Marines at the Kabul airport in the two weeks between the fall of Kabul and the completion of the American airlift.

Kamran, who didn’t want his surname to be used, was tasked with taking over his alma mater, Kabul University, and the Ministry of Higher Education.

A 30-year-old from Wardak province west of Kabul, he said he became a Taliban recruiter when he was pursuing a master’s degree in Arabic at the university in 2017. He estimates that, over the years, he persuaded some 500 people, mostly students, to join the insurgency. To maintain his cover, he shaved his chin, wore sunglasses and dressed in suits or jeans.

“Many of our friends who had beards were targeted,” he recalled. “I was above suspicion. While many of our low-ranking friends were arrested, I wasn’t. Even though I was their leader.”

Many of his acquaintances—former classmates, teachers and guards—first realized he was a member of the Taliban when he showed up with a gun on Aug. 15, he said. “Many employees of the ministry and the entire staff of the university knew me. They were surprised to see me,” said Kamran, whose new job is head of security for Kabul’s several universities.

Kamran has since adopted the Taliban’s trademark look: a black turban, a white shalwar kameez and a long beard. As for his suits and jeans, they are gathering dust in his closet. “Those aren’t our traditional outfits,” he said. “I don’t think I will have to wear them again.”

Similar Taliban cells operated in other major Afghan cities. In Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest metropolis, university lecturer Ahmad Wali Haqmal said he repeatedly asked Taliban leaders for permission to join the armed struggle against the U.S.-backed government after he completed his bachelor’s degree in Shariah law.

“I was ready to take the AK-47 and go because no Afghan can tolerate the invasion of their country,” he recalled. “But then our elders told us no, don’t come here, stay over there, work in the universities because these are also our people and the media and the world are deceiving them about us.”

The Taliban sent Mr. Haqmal to India to earn a master’s degree in human rights from Aligarh Muslim University, he said. When he returned to Kandahar, he was focused on recruitment and propaganda for the Taliban. After the fall of Kabul, he became the chief spokesman for the Taliban-run finance ministry.

Fereshta Abbasi, an Afghan lawyer, said she had long been suspicious about a man who worked alongside her at a fortified compound, Camp Baron near the Kabul airport, that hosted offices for development projects funded by the U.S. and other Western countries.

But it wasn’t until the day after the fall of Kabul—when the man appeared on television clutching a Kalashnikov rifle—that she discovered he was in fact a Taliban commander. “I was shocked,” said Ms. Abbasi, who is now based in London.

The commander, Assad Massoud Kohistani, said in an interview with CNN that women should cover their faces.

A person familiar with Mr. Kohistani’s employment history said he worked for a USAID-funded irrigation project and was previously employed by a United Nations agency as a finance officer. The U.S. Agency for International Development, asked about Mr. Kohistani, said it subjects its Afghan programs to counterterrorism partner vetting.

Run by Westerners, Camp Baron included a hotel with a restaurant that openly served beer and other alcoholic drinks. Ms. Abbasi, like many female colleagues working at Camp Baron, wore a loose head scarf in the office, and sometimes none at all. “I can’t imagine how angry he must have been with us,” she said.

Mr. Saad, the Badri commander, said he was shocked by his initial encounters with Kabul residents like Ms. Abbasi as he arrived to take charge at the Kabul airport at 7 a.m. on Aug. 16. Many of them screamed “You are death” at the Taliban, he recalled.

“It was painful to see Afghan women flee abroad, leaving their bags behind,” he said. “The generation of the past 20 years hadn’t seen us at all and were afraid of us.”

August 26, 2021

The group took aim at the Islamic State offshoot, earning it some support from world capitals. The Kabul airport bombings raise the specter of a longer, bloodier battle.

By Alan Cullison

Two days before he was shot dead by the Taliban, Abu Omar Khorasani, a onetime leader of Islamic State in Afghanistan, sat slumped in a dingy Afghan prison interview room, waiting for his soon-to-be executioners.

Mr. Khorasani saw the Taliban’s advance as a harbinger for change. For years both organizations had sworn to rid Afghanistan of nonbelievers.

“They will let me free if they are good Muslims,” he told The Wall Street Journal in an interview.

When Taliban fighters seized Kabul last week, they took control of the prison, freed hundreds of inmates, and killed Mr. Khorasani and eight other members of his terror group.

Just as the Taliban has been fighting American coalition forces in Afghanistan, it has been waging a separate but parallel war against its rival Islamist group.

On one side are the Taliban, who have co-opted remnants of al Qaeda. On the other is the Afghan arm of Islamic State, known as ISIS-K, which has sought to incorporate parts of Afghanistan into a broader caliphate emanating from the Middle East.

The Taliban, assisted at times by other countries and U.S. coalition forces, were the winner in that effort, defense officials say. ISIS-K has been driven from its enclaves in Afghanistan and its fighters dispersed into hiding. There appeared to be little resistance as the Taliban swept across the country this month in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal.

On Thursday, in a reminder that the battle remains bloody, two explosions ripped through the crowds surrounding Kabul airport, where the Taliban and U.S. forces had been providing security to foreigners and locals seeking to flee.

At least 90 Afghans and 13 U.S. service members were killed, the Pentagon said. U.S. officials attributed the attacks to Islamic State’s regional affiliate. Islamic State claimed responsibility in a report posted by its Amaq news agency.

The continued presence of Islamic State in Afghanistan is one reason the Taliban could receive international support from countries, including the U.S., that view Islamic State as a profound threat.

Russia, China and Iran say they see Taliban as a mainstay of stability in Afghanistan—a reason they plan to keep their Kabul embassies open after the U.S. withdrawal.

During a news conference after Thursday’s attack, Marine Corps Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, said the U.S. was relying on the Taliban to screen Afghans as they approached the airport.

“We use the Taliban as a tool to protect us as much as possible,” he said.

When the U.S. invaded Afghanistan in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, the Taliban had few allies. The organization was reviled in the West for hosting al Qaeda terrorists, and opposed by regional powers including Russia and Iran.

Behind the appearance of solidarity between the Taliban and al Qaeda was an uneasy relationship, with many Taliban resenting Osama bin Laden for using the country as an operating base starting the late 1990s.

A computer recovered by the Journal in Kabul after the Taliban were ousted in 2001 showed that al Qaeda members often looked down on their Afghans allies as illiterate and incapable of understanding the Quran. Members of the Taliban in turn blamed some in al Qaeda for exacerbating problems with the West and contributing to their country’s isolation.

The Sept. 11 attacks created new fissures as leaders of both organizations were forced into hiding. Taliban founder Mullah Omar didn’t appear to know about the attacks in advance, and his relationship with bin Laden was chilly while both were in hiding in Pakistan, said Anne Stenersen, an academic researcher of Islamism and author of the book “Al-Qaida in Afghanistan.”

After U.S. forces killed bin Laden in 2011, documents recovered from his Pakistan hideout suggest scant contact between the al Qaeda leader and Omar, she said.

The Taliban and al Qaeda forged stronger bonds on the battlefield as both fought U.S. occupation forces.

While the Taliban took years to regroup after 2001, al Qaeda launched the first successful attacks on U.S. troops in the eastern province of Ghazni in 2004, using improvised explosive devices, said one former Taliban commander who fought U.S. and government troops there.

By 2009, the groups began to merge their commands, usually with al Qaeda members embedded alongside Taliban fighter groups, the former commander said. The combined forces of the two groups waged a terror campaign against the U.S.-backed government and coalition forces through hit-and-run attacks, bombings and targeted assassinations.

The dynamic shifted as al Qaeda sought a lower profile and Islamic State rose in prominence in 2015. The new group seized territory in Syria and Iraq, and invited fighters to join to create a province of “Khorasan,” a historical region encompassing parts of Afghanistan, Iran and former Soviet states of Central Asia.

The group found devotees among disaffected Taliban and militants from Central and South Asia, some of whom volunteered for service in Syria and Iraq. Two Islamic State enclaves appeared inside Afghanistan itself; one in the eastern province of Nangarhar and another in the northern province of Jowzjan.

The arrivals weren’t welcomed by the Taliban, which viewed Islamic State as an impediment. Islamic State had more ambitious global goals, while the Taliban sought to regain control of Afghanistan and had no interest in helping Islamist groups outside the country, said Mr. Khorasani in interviews conducted shortly before his death.

“The leadership of Daesh is independent, the goals of Daesh are independent,” Mr. Khorasani said, using an alternative name for Islamic State. “We have a global agenda and so when people ask who can really represent Islam and the whole Islamic community, of course we’re more attractive.”

Other nations began to view the Taliban as a potential bulwark against Islamic State’s global ambitions.

“There was huge concern about it and suddenly there was a desire to find some common ground with the Taliban,” said Bruce Hoffman, director of security studies at Georgetown University. “People began saying maybe they were a group we could reason with.”

Russia, which still officially classifies the Taliban as a terrorist organization, opened negotiations with the group more than five years ago, according to Ivan Safranchuk, a Central Asia expert and professor at Moscow State University. The rise of Islamic State in Afghanistan “became a motive to go big with these contacts,” he said.

The U.S. has accused Russia of providing arms to the Taliban, an allegation that Russia denies. Iran also has provided arms, according to U.S. intelligence. China separately hosted a high-level Taliban delegation as recently as this year.

Mr. Khorasani said he joined ISIS-K when it opened a chapter in Afghanistan. He rose to be regional governor—its then-highest ranking member—overseeing South Asia and the Far East.

Similar to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the group in Afghanistan became infamous for grisly execution videos, attacks on civilian targets, and use of extreme violence against newly conquered locals who opposed their rule.

In Nangarhar, where Mr. Khorasani served as governor, the group executed village elders and locals by seating them blindfolded on a pile of explosives on a hillside, which it detonated. The group later circulated a video recording of the execution.

Mr. Khorasani said those executed in the video were criminals.

He said attacks by Islamic State often benefited the Taliban, despite the enmity between the groups. He noted that a prison break in Jalalabad last year, organized by Islamic State and involving four suicide bombers and 11 gunmen, set free hundreds of prisoners from both the Taliban and Islamic State.

A showdown between the Taliban and Islamic State took place in Jowzjan in 2017, Mr. Khorasani said, after a commander with Taliban ties and his fighters swore allegiance to Islamic State founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. They were joined by a militant Uzbek group called the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Together they seized two valleys of the province and raised Islamic State flag over their statelet, Mr. Khorasani said.

The fighting that he described corresponds with U.S. accounts of the battles, in which the forces of the U.S., the Afghan government and the Taliban crushed Islamic State militants over the course of several months. Hundreds of Islamic State militants surrendered to government forces the following year.

In Nangarhar, Islamic State was similarly ground down by attacks by the U.S., Afghan government and the Taliban, Mr. Khorasani said. The U.S. dropped what is known as the Mother of All Bombs, or a MOAB, the most powerful conventional bomb in the U.S. military arsenal, to wipe out a Soviet-era cave complex controlled by Islamic State militants.

“Everyone supported the Taliban one way or another against us,” Mr. Khorasani said. “It’s no secret why they began to win.”

The U.S. said at the time that it killed more than 90 militants including several commanders in the bombing of the cave complex. Mr. Khorasani disputed that, saying the complex was evacuated at the time.

The rise of Islamic State as a new international enemy furthered the Taliban’s global diplomatic efforts, boosting a group that for years had sought to scrub itself of a terrorist taint, according to former officials of the U.S.-backed Afghan government.

The U.S. offered the Taliban international recognition by opening negotiations in Doha that led to the release last year of 5,000 inmates from Afghan prisons. Many of those former detainees flocked to the battlefield, strengthening Taliban forces, former Afghan government officials said.

As part of the agreement reached in Doha, the Taliban promised to prevent militant groups from attacking the West.

Mr. Khorasani said he left Nangarhar last year as the remnants of Islamic State fighters dispersed inside Afghanistan. He was arrested by U.S. and Afghan forces in a house outside Kabul in May 2020.

A judge sentenced him to death and 800 years in prison, he said. The Taliban got to him first.

 

October 16, 2021

U.N. warns that 95% of Afghans aren’t getting enough to eat as winter approaches

By Saeed Shah | Photographs by Joël van Houdt for The Wall Street Journal

HERAT, Afghanistan—Desperate to feed her family, Saleha, a housecleaner here in western Afghanistan, has incurred such an insurmountable debt that the only way she sees out is to hand over her 3-year-old daughter, Najiba, to the man who lent her the money.

The debt is $550.

Saleha, a 40-year-old mother of six who goes by one name, earns 70 cents a day cleaning homes in a wealthier neighborhood of Herat. Her much older husband doesn’t have any work.

Such is the starkness of deepening poverty in Afghanistan, a humanitarian crisis that is worsening fast after the Taliban seized power on Aug. 15, prompting the U.S. to freeze $9 billion in Afghan central-bank assets and causing a halt in most foreign aid.

Already, 95% of Afghans aren’t getting enough to eat, according to the United Nations’ World Food Program, which has warned that “people are being pushed to the brink of survival.” Almost the entire Afghan population of 40 million people could fall below the poverty line in coming months, according to the U.N.

Behind these statistics lie countless personal tragedies of families like Saleha’s. She and her husband used to work on a farm in the western province of Badghis, but two years ago lost that income because of fighting in the area and drought. So they borrowed money just to get food. Hoping to find employment, they ended up moving to a giant encampment of people displaced from other provinces, known as Shahrak Sabz, in Herat.

With the financial system and trade paralyzed after the Taliban takeover, prices for basic food items like flour and oil have doubled since mid-August. The lender offered early this month to write off the debt if she hands over her little girl.

They have three months to provide the money. Otherwise, Najiba will be doing household work in the lender’s home and be married off to one of his three sons when she reaches puberty. They are not sure which one. The oldest is now 6.

“If life continues to be this awful, I will kill my children and myself,” said Saleha, speaking in her tiny two-room home. “I don’t even know what we will eat tonight.”

“I will try to find money to save my daughter’s life,” added her husband, Abdul Wahab.

The lender, Khalid Ahmad, confirmed he had made the offer to the couple.

“I also don’t have money. They haven’t paid me back,” said Mr. Ahmad, reached by phone in Badghis. “So there is no option but taking the daughter.”

Following the Taliban takeover, neighboring Pakistan and Iran, where many men from this community used to work as laborers, closed their borders, bracing for a flood of refugees. All that is left as work is collecting plastic bottles and other trash to sell for recycling. Other families in the area have had to surrender children to repay debts, residents say.

Growing destitution could undermine the Taliban’s so-far solid hold on power and serve as a recruiting tool for the local branch of Islamic State, their only significant rival. A Taliban official in the west of the country said that Afghans would have to get used to a meager existence.

“We suffered for 20 years fighting jihad, we lost members of our families, we didn’t have proper food, and in the end, we were rewarded with this government. If people have to struggle for a few months, so what?” said the official. “Popularity is not important for the Taliban.”

Taliban officials have repeatedly said they welcome international aid for Afghanistan but wouldn’t compromise on their Islamic beliefs to secure assistance.

The humanitarian crisis, however, is prompting a debate within the international community over whether to condition foreign assistance on the Taliban moderating their behavior and showing more respect for the rights of women and minorities.

Afghanistan’s new health minister, a urologist appointed by the Taliban and one of the few non-clerics in the new administration, pleaded for the international community not to abandon the country.

“It is the same mother, the same child, the same patient you were previously helping. They haven’t changed,” Dr. Qalandar Ibaad said in an interview. “Governments change in all countries.”

Groups like the International Committee of the Red Cross and the U.N. warn that emergency humanitarian aid must be unconditional. While demanding that the Taliban allow women to study and work is important, they argue, a more urgent priority is to make sure women don’t freeze or starve to death this winter.

The U.S. and other Western nations that spent the past two decades fighting in Afghanistan have a particular responsibility, some aid officials say.

“These countries who have their fingerprints all over the sorry situation here have at least to disburse the funding we need so we can avoid people perishing in enormous numbers this winter,” Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, which operates in more than a dozen Afghan provinces, said in an interview in Kabul. “To pause the lifesaving funding because we’re still negotiating female rights would be utterly wrong.”

Mr. Egeland, a former head of the U.N.’s emergency aid arm, said his organization wouldn’t reopen the boys schools in provinces where girls schools weren’t allowed, but it wouldn’t withhold aid that could save lives.

Heather Barr, associate director of the women’s rights division at Human Rights Watch, said that donors had vowed they would judge the Taliban by its actions, but the risk of famine left them with little choice but to provide aid regardless.

“The Taliban are holding Afghans hostage and playing chicken with the international community,” she said.

Some 2,300 Afghan hospitals and clinics were dependent on foreign funding before the Taliban takeover. Just 17% of those are now fully functional, and 64% are out of essential drugs, said Richard Brennan, the regional emergency director for the World Health Organization.

International aid had also paid the salaries of tens of thousands of doctors, nurses and teachers, now struggling to get by.

In Herat, an emergency feeding center for severely malnourished babies run by the French charity Doctors Without Borders is full and has had to expand capacity. Babies are arriving with respiratory distress, dehydration, and shock. Their mothers are getting such little sustenance that they can’t produce enough milk.

At Herat Regional Hospital, the staff have threatened to quit after not having been paid for four months. The government hospital has run out of even common medicines like antibiotics and basic supplies like surgical gloves and bandages. Oxygen is in short supply. Patients have to purchase their own medicines, anesthetic and other necessities for surgeries.

“I hope we don’t go back to the situation of 25, 30 years ago, when there were basically no health facilities in this country,” said Dr. Mohammad Aref Jalali, the medical director. “We could lose everything we have achieved.”

In the orthopedic ward, Abdul Rahman, was lying on a bed with pins sticking out of his leg, where he was shot by robbers for the motorbike he was riding.  The wound had become infected and doctors told the father of seven they might now have to amputate the leg.

“If they cut off my leg, there’s no one else to provide for my family,” said Mr. Rahman, a laborer, age 37. “What will happen to my little children?”

Jalaluddin Nazari and Ehsanullah Amiri contributed to this article.

 

November 25, 2021

Three months after the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan, girls haven’t been allowed in public school beyond sixth grade in Kabul and other cities

By Margherita Stancati | Photographs by Paula Bronstein for The Wall Street Journal

KABUL—A group of teenage girls filed quietly into Fawzia’s house, took off their shoes and gathered in the living room for a clandestine history lesson.

Fawzia, who asked to be identified only by her first name, talked about Afghanistan’s fabled treasure, the Bactrian Gold, and its past kings and queens. The 56-year-old teacher sees her new, secret work with teens as essential.

When the Taliban started reopening public schools in September, they banned girls from attending beyond the sixth grade. Since then, middle and high schools in a few provinces have reopened to girls, but in Kabul and most of the country they remain shut.

“If they just sit at home they will get depressed or addicted to their phones,” Fawzia said. “We need to give them hope that one day schools will reopen.”

The Taliban leadership has so far espoused a more moderate attitude toward women and girls compared with their rule in the 1990s. Taliban officials say schools for older girls will reopen in Kabul and elsewhere once appropriate gender-segregation arrangements are made.

Yet three months after the Taliban seized control of the country, many Afghans wonder if those promises to reopen schools will be kept.

“It’s clear from their past behavior how they feel about women’s education. They don’t want to empower women through education. Their goal is to keep women in their homes,” said Axana Soltan, who fled Afghanistan as a child when the Taliban were last in power and runs an NGO in the U.S. that advocates for the education of Afghan girls.

In the 1990s, Fawzia, a mother of five, tutored her eldest daughter and other children at home. She is now one of many teachers holding secret classes for teenage girls. Other teens are blending in with younger students at schools, while their teachers hope the Taliban won’t notice or care.

The willingness of parents, teachers and students to resist the de facto education ban is a measure of how much Afghanistan has changed in the past two decades. It signals there would be strong opposition, particularly in cities such as Kabul, to a return of harsh social rules imposed in the past.

The Taliban had banned television in the 1990s, but most Afghans can now access the internet, including online classes. Expectations also have changed.

“When the Taliban first came 20 years ago, the level of education in the country was very low. Many women were satisfied with basic literacy classes. Now, the education level is high,” said Farhat, 22, who asked only her first name be used. She is helping her mother, Fawzia, teach the teenage girls, including a younger sister, in their living room, but “small classes like this can’t fix the problem,” she said. “Schools must reopen.”

Pashtana Durrani, an Afghan educator, is setting up secret classes for girls in science, technology, engineering and math. “If we lose momentum there will be no female doctors, engineers, no midwives,” she said.

Around 100 teenage students in southern Afghanistan are enrolled for a mix of online and in-person teaching, Ms. Durrani said. She hopes to expand the program to other parts of the country, including where girls’ schools have reopened.

The Taliban have said they would respect the rights of women within the framework of Islam, but haven’t explained what limits they will set. Images of women outside many shops have been painted over, and women have been barred from many workplaces, including all government jobs.

“We are committed to giving girls the right to education. Islam has given them that right. But there are some issues that go against our customs and Islamic values. Once those issues are fixed, we will let girls go to school,” said Akef Muhajir, spokesman for the Taliban’s newly established Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, which occupies the former ministry of women’s affairs. “We’re trying to do it as soon as possible.”

The Taliban say male teachers shouldn’t be allowed to teach female students, requiring the recruitment of more female teachers. They also say transportation must be arranged to ferry teenage girls between home and school. All that requires money the Taliban government doesn’t have. Most teachers, like other civil servants, haven’t been paid in months.

How the Taliban provides education to girls is seen as a benchmark for international assistance. The Taliban are pressing for the release of more than $9 billion in Afghan central-bank assets held by the U.S.

“One of the problems regarding the reopening of girls’ schools and universities is economic,” said Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief Taliban spokesman. “If you impose sanctions on us, you are further disrupting the process.”

Washington is committed to providing humanitarian aid to Afghanistan but is reluctant to directly support the new government unless the Taliban respect women’s rights, U.S. officials said. Legal constraints mean the frozen assets can’t be easily released, the officials said.

“We will need to find ways to continue supporting the Afghan population without benefiting the Taliban,” a State Department spokesperson said. “This won’t be easy.”

Off limits

The Taliban’s draconian treatment of women helped turn Afghanistan into a pariah state in the late 1990s. All girls were barred from education, and most jobs were off-limits to women. Women appearing in public had to be covered from head to toe and accompanied by a male guardian. Rule-breakers were beaten and detained by religious-police squads.

Fawzia, the teacher, was mostly confined at home. She recalled the time a religious-police officer berated her for not covering her face: “He asked my husband: ‘Why is your wife’s face not covered?’ I was so scared, I quickly covered my face with my head scarf.”

The Taliban lashed her husband as punishment, she said. After that, she only left her home wearing a head-to-toe blue burqa.

Fawzia learned of an undercover school for girls around that time and brought her 7-year-old daughter. “It took place in a center for Quranic studies, she said. “Nobody outside knew they actually taught English.”

While literacy rates have greatly improved in the past 20 years, Afghan girls are still behind: 40% completed primary school compared with 70% of boys, according to 2019 United Nations data. Access to education is especially limited in impoverished rural areas, where there are few schools for boys or girls.

In May, three bombs targeted a high school in a predominantly Shiite neighborhood of western Kabul, killing more than 90 people, most of them teenage girls. Islamic State was suspected. The group is a foe of the Taliban and seeks to exterminate Afghanistan’s Shiite minority.

Yasamin recalled the school building shaking when the first bomb hit. The 16-year-old girl ran outside and scrambled over a wall lined with barbed wire to escape. The attack ended her desire to study. “It was my father who insisted that I return to school because my future depends on it,” she said.

The high school had reopened for a few weeks before the Taliban took control of Kabul. With the high school now closed to female students, Yasamin, who asked only her first name be used, spent her days at home until her parents discovered that some private schools were secretly enrolling teenage girls.

Nasser, 28, is the headmaster of one in a Shiite neighborhood of western Kabul. Initially, he stuck to the rules, he said: No girls beyond sixth grade. Then he started receiving calls from parents. He figured the Taliban were too busy to notice if older girls attended classes.

On Sept. 6, roughly a week after the school reopened, Nasser let families with older daughters know that the teens could return. Now, 50 girls from seventh grade to 10th grade attend, including Yasamin.

“If the Taliban find out what I am doing, they will punish me severely. But I take responsibility for my actions,” said Nasser, who asked to be identified only by his first name. “I have no fear. I want girls to continue their studies.”

Last month, two Taliban fighters responsible for security in the neighborhood knocked on the school’s gate. It turned out “they just wanted to introduce themselves,” Nasser said, and weren’t interested in looking inside.

Yasamin, a sophomore, has attended classes for more than a month. “It’s unthinkable to ban girls from education in the 21st century,” she said. “It’s a fundamental right.”

Months ago, she wanted to be a judge “because in Afghanistan we live in a society where women’s abilities are ignored and where their rights are violated every day,” Yasamin said. Under Taliban rule, she isn’t sure what she will do.

A religious school, or madrassa, in Kabul that allowed girls through the 10th grade reopened two days after the Taliban took the city. Mullah Ibrahim Barakzai, who founded and runs the school, attended by students of both Sunni and Shia sects, said he saw no reason to ask for permission.

“The students and teachers are all female. That’s why there is no issue.” he said. “We do not need to ask the Taliban for permission to pray. We do not need to ask them for permission to study the Quran. Women have the right.”

He established the madrassa three years ago with the aim of persuading conservative families to enroll their girls. The school teaches English, chemistry and physics, in addition to Islamic studies.

The Taliban are yet to revise the national school curriculum, which is expected to focus more on Afghan history and Islamic studies.

‘I said goodbye’

The last time Fawzia met her female students in a school building was on Aug. 10, five days before the fall of Kabul. Her 9th-grade students had just completed the last of their first-term exams.

“This may be the last day that you go to school because the Taliban are coming.” she recalled warning them.

Her students asked what would happen to them under the Taliban.

“Maybe they have changed, and they will let you continue your studies,” she told them. “If not, you can study at home and still learn.”

On Aug. 14, hours before the Afghan republic collapsed, Fawzia went to her school for the last time, to submit the exam papers she had graded.

“I said goodbye to my colleagues, and we promised to stay in touch,” Fawzia said. As she headed out, she said, “I looked at the school one more time and asked myself whether or not I would ever see it again.”

A few weeks later, she got a call from the dean at her school. The Taliban had ordered the teachers to start work at primary schools.

Fawzia now spends mornings teaching 7- and 8-year-old boys. Then she returns home to spend her afternoon teaching the older girls in secret.

“Studying at home is just not the same as studying in school,” her 16-year-old daughter Malahat said. “It’s not just about studying. I miss my classmates.”

Ehsanullah Amiri and Yaroslav Trofimov contributed to this article.

December 14, 2021

Islamist movement spoke of moderation as it solidified gains on the battlefield, taking Washington and its Afghan allies by surprise.

By Yaroslav Trofimov in Kabul and Jessica Donati in Washington | Photographs by Kate Brooks/Redux Pictures for The Wall Street Journal

Taliban delegates and representatives of the U.S.-backed Afghan republic gathered for a secret retreat in a château north of Paris in December 2012, raising hopes that a peace deal could end their intractable war.

The Taliban, whose fighters had been beaten back by President Obama’s troop surge, dined on pork-free French cuisine with Afghan warlords, civil-society activists and female parliamentarians. At a formal session in the Chantilly hideaway, the emissaries distributed a message on behalf of the movement’s founding leader, the one-eyed cleric Mullah Mohammad Omar.

The Taliban won’t seek to rule Afghanistan on their own anymore, the document assured, and a new constitution “would pave the way for power-sharing in the next government.” When the republic’s delegates returned to Kabul, many enthused about how much the Taliban had evolved from the ruthless regime that ruled Afghanistan in the 1990s.

For the next nine years, the Taliban continued to lull the world with conciliatory messaging as they pursued a bloody war at home in parallel with diplomatic efforts to secure their ultimate goal: an American military withdrawal.

“Monopoly of power is a story of failure. That is why we want to have all on board,” Suhail Shaheen, now the Taliban’s ambassador-designate to the United Nations, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal six weeks before the group seized Kabul, deposed the Afghan republic and monopolized all power. “Past experiences have shown that you will ultimately fail and will not bring durable peace.”

Throughout its history, Afghanistan defied foreign attempts to reshape the country, from the British Empire in the 19th century to the Soviet occupation in the 1980s to the failed American experiment in nation-building.

An examination of why U.S. peace efforts collapsed so spectacularly, setting back the Biden presidency and America’s global standing, reveals the Taliban’s mastery of the diplomatic long game.

America’s increasing impatience with its longest overseas war drove the pace of these talks—removing one by one the Taliban’s incentives to compromise. For President Biden just as for President Trump, the “priority was to get out, not the Afghan settlement,” said Zalmay Khalilzad, who served as chief U.S. negotiator under both administrations. “They made it clear—and that strengthened the Talibs.”

Seeking an exit, U.S. officials found it expedient to paint Taliban behavior in the best possible light while exaggerating the strength of the Afghan republic they had brought to life. Recognizing this opening, the Taliban leadership learned how to obfuscate their true intentions in the comforting language that appealed to foreign diplomats and negotiators.

The question now is whether Western powers can apply lessons from past failures as they try to nudge the Islamist movement into adopting more-moderate policies. Experience suggests that the Taliban won’t readily trade long-held traditions for Western cash and a place in the global community.

Some U.S. and former Afghan officials continue to believe the relatively pragmatic Taliban they dealt with were sincere and that a negotiated solution could have preserved at least some achievements gleaned from the 20-year international effort in Afghanistan. Intransigence by President Ashraf Ghani, they argue, ultimately torpedoed these efforts and bolstered the Taliban’s more hard-line elements.

Unable to fight once American support disappeared, Afghanistan’s armed forces disintegrated in August, allowing the Taliban to seize almost all of the country’s provincial capitals and reach the outskirts of Kabul in just over a week. The collapse of remaining government structures after Mr. Ghani fled the country on Aug. 15 rendered U.S.-backed talks on a peaceful transition moot.

The new Afghan government established in September is made up almost exclusively of Taliban clerics prominent in the insurgency. While the new regime has refrained so far from openly hosting terrorist groups or committing the kind of atrocities that earned it world-wide condemnation in the past, it has already sharply curtailed the rights of women, banned girls’ education beyond the sixth grade in most provinces and marginalized ethnic communities that aren’t part of its Pashtun power base.

In continuing talks with U.S. and allies in Doha, Qatar, the new Taliban administration is seeking diplomatic recognition, a removal of American sanctions and the unfreezing of over $9 billion in Afghan central-bank assets abroad. One of Washington’s key conditions is the creation of a more inclusive government in Kabul that respects human rights, one that would fulfill promises that the Taliban have been making since Chantilly.

“The Taliban regime should seek legitimacy within Afghanistan before seeking international recognition,” said Thomas West, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan, who is leading these talks.

The Road to Doha

The Taliban sought to negotiate with Washington and other Afghans immediately after a U.S. invasion ousted their government in 2001. Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s American-anointed new leader, wanted the Islamist movement to participate in the Bonn conference that year that established the country’s new political order. Washington, still shaken in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks, which Osama bin Laden plotted on Afghan soil, vetoed the plan. Potential Taliban negotiators were hunted down by U.S. special-operations forces and the Central Intelligence Agency, and shipped to detention in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.

American and allied attitudes to engaging the Taliban changed as the group bounced back in the ensuing decade. By 2009, the Taliban once again controlled large parts of the countryside. Mr. Obama surged the U.S. military presence to over 100,000 troops to defend the Afghan republic—while also promising to start withdrawing all American forces 18 months later.

By the time Washington was ready to negotiate, Taliban leaders refused to sit down with Mr. Karzai’s administration, dismissing it as an American puppet with no legitimacy or agency of its own. Mr. Karzai, for his part, objected to the U.S. engaging in talks with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan republic’s democratically elected government. The Obama administration agreed not to discuss Afghanistan’s future without Kabul but also endorsed the idea of creating a Taliban political mission abroad to facilitate diplomatic contacts.

The U.S. and the insurgents began building trust by negotiating tactical deals, such as freeing five senior Taliban leaders who had spent more than a decade in Guantánamo in exchange for the Taliban handing over Bowe Bergdahl, a U.S. Army sergeant who walked off his base and was captured by the insurgents. Taliban representatives, some of whom had been living in Doha for years, formally opened a political office there in 2013.

While the Taliban still rejected direct talks with the Kabul government, its envoys based in Doha began to engage in several rounds of so-called track-two meetings with members of the Afghan republic’s political elites. The Chantilly confab was followed by similar events in Europe, Russia and China.

Over the years, the Taliban office in Doha, and the exemption of its members from United Nations travel sanctions, allowed the insurgent movement to reach out to governments world-wide, gaining growing acceptance as a legitimate political force.

“One of the reasons why the Taliban outsmarted Americans is the fact they set up relations with the whole world while negotiating with the Americans—something that the Americans didn’t want to happen,” said Rahimullah Mahmood, a veteran insurgent commander who served as governor of Wardak province after the Taliban takeover and now is deputy head of the Kandahar-based military corps. “They succeeded in convincing the world that the Taliban weren’t the terrorists as depicted by American propaganda.”

In 2018, President Trump, a longtime critic of the Afghan war, scrapped the long-held precondition that the U.S. would only enter into talks with the Taliban that included the Afghan republic’s government. Mr. Khalilzad, a former U.S. ambassador to Kabul and to the United Nations, was appointed as special envoy with wide latitude to negotiate a deal.

Born in Afghanistan in 1951, Mr. Khalilzad knew Mr. Ghani since both went to the U.S. as high-school exchange students. The two men later studied at the American University in Beirut and then earned their Ph.D.s in the U.S.—Mr. Khalilzad at the University of Chicago, and Mr. Ghani at Columbia. Mr. Khalilzad’s dealings with the Taliban dated back to the 1990s, when he served as a consultant for the Unocal oil company that explored building a pipeline through Afghanistan.

“His mandate was to figure out a way to enable us to leave quickly and potentially zero out the force, but to be able to call it a victory,” said a senior State Department official who was involved in the effort. “And it wasn’t always understood that those were mostly mutually exclusive.”

Mr. Ghani, a former American citizen who succeeded Mr. Karzai as president in 2014, was alarmed by these negotiations. A co-author of a book called “Fixing Failed States” and a onetime fixture of Washington’s think-tank circuit, he boasted to other Afghan officials about his understanding of American politics. But, until too late, he and senior officials in his administration misread American intentions and clung on to illusions that Washington would never actually pull the plug on Kabul.

The U.S. had been talking about leaving Afghanistan for more than a decade, after all. “There was this notion of Afghanistan being a unique geographical location that would always be an area of interest for global powers,” said Nader Nadery, a senior Afghan peace negotiator who headed the fallen republic’s civil service. “Some of our colleagues believed until the last months that the U.S. forces would never leave.”

“In Kabul, they were living in an unrealistic world,” agreed Mr. Khalilzad, who left the U.S. government in October. “That was the grand miscalculation.”

That belief that America’s national-security establishment wouldn’t allow Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden to abandon Afghanistan was coupled with another strategic blunder: excessive optimism about the Afghan republic’s own military strength, Mr. Khalilzad added. “They didn’t assess their forces correctly. I don’t know that any of them thought, at the leadership level, that the force would collapse that quickly.”

The combination of these two miscalculations meant that Mr. Ghani slow-rolled peace talks between the Afghan republic and the Taliban on a possible power-sharing agreement that would have inevitably involved him leaving office. It is unclear to what extent the Taliban would have compromised. But, as the insurgents made dramatic military gains, their calculations changed, too. In Doha over the months, discussions moved from possible power-sharing to considering an “inclusive government” dominated by the Taliban to essentially a surrender on Taliban terms.

“Ghani was not flexible, and that is why we are in this dark situation,” said Habiba Sarabi, a member of the Afghan republic’s negotiating team with the Taliban and a former governor of Bamian province. “His mentality was that the Taliban should join his government and he would be on the top. This was not possible in a peace process. He loved power. He was crazy for power.”

Ms. Sarabi, who like most of the Afghan republic’s senior officials and negotiators is now in exile, added that Mr. Khalilzad shared the blame because he consistently stressed the Taliban’s alleged moderation and interest in a peaceful transition. “He wanted to sugarcoat the almond. But at the end the bitter taste appeared,” she said.

Mr. Khalilzad, who wrote an op-ed all the way back in 1996 to argue that “the Taliban does not practice the anti-U.S. style of fundamentalism,” said that he believed in the sincerity of Taliban negotiators and that it was the fault of both sides that no political settlement could be found. “They didn’t rise to the occasion,” he said. “I couldn’t blame that one side was more at fault than the other.”

Withdrawal or Peace?

To begin serious talks, Mr. Khalilzad needed a Taliban counterpart with appropriate seniority. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar fit the bill. He was a co-founder of the Islamist organization, served as deputy minister of defense in the previous Taliban regime and coordinated the insurgency’s commanders after the U.S. invasion. A relative pragmatist, Mr. Baradar had tried to open negotiations with the U.S. in 2001, and engaged in secret contacts with Mr. Karzai’s government in 2010. One of the few senior Taliban members from the same aristocratic Popolzai clan as Mr. Karzai, Mr. Baradar was captured by Pakistani and U.S. agents in Karachi later that year, and kept in Pakistani custody since.

In September 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo led a delegation to Islamabad to press the need for Pakistan’s cooperation and to demand Mr. Baradar’s release. Pakistan acquiesced and Mr. Baradar moved to Doha weeks later to take the helm of the Taliban political office. The Taliban’s secretive supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada, who has never been filmed in public, gave his blessing to the negotiations.

The talks faced a constraint from the start: Mr. Trump’s impatience to bring home the troops. American negotiators say they woke up every morning with the fear of seeing what they described as “the tweet of Damocles” in which Mr. Trump would announce an unconditional withdrawal.

As American and Taliban envoys started hashing out a deal in Doha, U.S. ambassador to Kabul John Bass tried for months to push Mr. Ghani to name a broad negotiating team that would be ready to begin Kabul’s own talks with the Taliban. The Afghan president refused, unwilling to dilute his administration’s control over the process.

“President Ghani’s model of negotiation—and that was the essence of his unhappiness—was that he should be the one negotiating with Hibatullah. That he would have his laptop under his arm, sit with Hibatullah, and make a deal,” Mr. Khalilzad said. “And of course that was not realistic from the get-go.”

By the summer of 2019, Mr. Khalilzad’s team hammered out the broad contours of the deal with Mr. Baradar in Qatar. Then, the Taliban suddenly reversed course and demanded prisoner releases, a new, major concession. To break the deadlock, the U.S. yielded and signed off on a clause that required Kabul to free up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners in Afghan custody. Mr. Ghani was allowed to read the draft text but not to keep a copy. He wasn’t given access to the agreement’s secret annexes, either.

With preparations under way for Mr. Trump to host a grand signing ceremony around the Sept. 11 anniversary, a car bomb went off near the U.S. Embassy and Afghan security compounds in Kabul, killing 12 people, including a U.S. soldier. The Taliban claimed responsibility. A furious Mr. Trump tweeted that he “called off” the talks with the Islamist movement and canceled plans for a meeting with Taliban leaders and Mr. Ghani in Camp David.

Encouraged by the apparent about-turn, Mr. Ghani hoped that Mr. Trump’s rush for the exits would now be restrained. His national-security adviser, Hamdullah Mohib, complained that America was “whitewashing the Taliban” because it was tired of the war, and called for reassessing the deal. Mr. Nadery, the peace negotiator, wasn’t as optimistic. That September, he binge-watched a Netflix series on the fall of South Vietnam, noting that the government in Saigon, just as the government in Kabul, had been kept in the dark by the U.S.

In Washington, John Bolton, Mr. Trump’s then-national security adviser, held a similar view. “We were basically selling the government out. The analogy of Vietnam is really true,” said Mr. Bolton, who quit that month over disagreements with Mr. Trump that included Afghanistan policy. “In both cases, everybody, every other interested party could see that the principal U.S. objective was to get out.”

The suspension didn’t last long. Mr. Trump still wanted to leave Afghanistan before the U.S. presidential elections. Within weeks, U.S. diplomats opened talks to swap two professors of the American University in Kabul held hostage by the Taliban in return for Anas Haqqani, the younger brother of the Taliban’s deputy leader Sirajuddin, who was held by the Afghan government. The U.S. has designated the Haqqani network a terrorist organization since 2012 because of its links to al Qaeda.

By February 2020, the Taliban agreed to a brief cease-fire as a show of goodwill and Mr. Trump approved signing the deal. It was officially called the “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan,” even though the Taliban made no commitment to stop military operations against the Afghan government and security forces.

In the text, the U.S. promised a full military withdrawal by May 2021 in exchange for the Taliban pledging to prevent terrorist groups from using Afghan soil to threaten other nations. The Taliban, in a significant departure, also agreed to open peace talks with Mr. Ghani’s government. The U.S. withdrawal wasn’t conditional on the success of these negotiations—in part because Washington didn’t want to give Mr. Ghani a lever to slow down the departure.

Mr. Pompeo flew to Doha to attend the signing ceremony on Feb. 29, 2020. Minutes before his arrival in Qatar, the Taliban staged a victory march with the white flags of their Islamic Emirate, prompting fears among the Qatari hosts that the embarrassment might scuttle the deal at the last moment. The Qataris were prepared to prevent the Taliban from entering the luxury Sheraton resort with the flags. The insurgency’s representatives left them in their vehicles.

Mr. Pompeo grimly shook hands with Mr. Baradar after aides failed to orchestrate his separation from the Taliban in the room. Mr. Khalilzad signed for the U.S. while Mr. Pompeo followed with a somber speech delivered mostly to journalists in another room afterward. Members of Mr. Khalilzad’s team were relieved the day had passed without incident and stayed out until late in Doha, drinking overpriced cocktails.

Mr. Ghani initially resisted the Doha agreement’s commitment, made by the U.S. without his assent, that Kabul release thousands of Taliban prisoners. He also kept rebuffing American pressure to create a negotiating team including his political foes in Kabul, such as Mr. Karzai and his challenger in the 2019 presidential elections, Abdullah Abdullah. Any power-sharing deal with the insurgents would be contingent on Mr. Ghani stepping down, after all. Loath to leave office, the Afghan president instead kept hoping that Washington would reverse the withdrawal decision, especially if Mr. Trump were to fail in his re-election bid.

“We, the Afghan government, should have seen the writing on the wall,” Mr. Mohib, who served as Mr. Ghani’s national-security adviser until both men fled Kabul on Aug. 15, said when asked what was the Afghan administration’s biggest error. “It was a withdrawal, not a peace agreement. Democratic values were not as much of a priority as we thought. The gains of the past 20 years were not as much of a priority as we thought they would be.”

Taliban military commanders were also initially upset with the Doha deal. Mullah Mohammad Fazel, a Taliban negotiator and one of the five former Guantánamo inmates freed in exchange for Sgt. Bergdahl, traveled across front lines from Qatar to a meeting with insurgent commanders from all over Afghanistan to explain its terms.

Some of the men, sporting the Taliban’s black turbans and beards, believed the agreement was naive, according to those present. How were they supposed to trust that the U.S. would in fact leave Afghanistan the following year? Why should they stop hitting American forces even as Washington retained the right to conduct airstrikes against them?

“During the negotiations, many were claiming that the Americans were deceiving us, that it was all a trap for us,” said Mr. Mahmood, then the military commander of the Taliban’s eastern zone, who attended the gathering in the Musa Qala district of Helmand province. “Many military commanders wanted to resume attacks on Americans. The suicide bombers, in particular, were extremely sad: they cried and mourned the fact that they wouldn’t get martyred.”

Yet, the Taliban political negotiators’ argument that Washington would deliver on pledges made in Doha and withdraw from Afghanistan prevailed at the end, said Mr. Mahmood. “It’s a treaty of victory,” was the message that he carried back to his troops.

Shortly after that, the Taliban’s propaganda department published a calendar for the Islamic year 1442 that began in August 2020. It showed an American and a Taliban hand signing the Doha deal—described as “the agreement to end the invasion”—and Afghanistan breaking free from chains of foreign occupation. Below was a quote from the Taliban’s supreme leader, Mr. Hibatullah, pledging: “We don’t want the monopoly on power.”

Drawdown

The lack of progress in Afghanistan ahead of the U.S. presidential election was causing Mr. Trump to get impatient, and in June he ordered a fresh drawdown of troops to 4,500, without any concessions by the Taliban.

At that point, the Taliban hadn’t delivered on any of their major promises except for stopping attacks on American troops. They still refused to meet the Afghan government’s delegation. Trying to gain the prisoner release and break the stalemate, Mr. Baradar made verbal assurances to U.S. negotiators that violence would drop as soon as the 5,000 Taliban inmates were set free.

A buoyed Mr. Khalilzad sent a cable to Washington announcing that Mr. Baradar had promised a near-complete cease-fire. Ross Wilson, who had taken over the role of top U.S. diplomat in Kabul, delivered the message to Mr. Ghani. The promised cease-fire “was part of our selling of what was a very difficult decision for good reasons,” Mr. Wilson said. Grudgingly, Mr. Ghani agreed to a prisoner release in phases in exchange for the Taliban setting free 1,000 government personnel in their custody.

With the release complete in September 2020, Taliban and Afghan republic negotiators finally gathered in Doha’s Sharq Village resort for their own peace talks. The venue spread around a large beachside pool frequented by bikini-clad tourists who lounged under loud pop music that wafted into Taliban negotiators’ rooms. Afghan republic delegates were told by Kabul to stay away from the pool to avoid embarrassing headlines. The Taliban didn’t swim.

The two sides had breakfast in separate halls and rarely socialized. Key Taliban negotiators, who by then spent several years in Qatar and had families and businesses there, only occasionally showed up in the Sharq Village.

As the two Afghan delegations began their discussions, a U.S. military team monitored the levels of violence in Afghanistan to evaluate whether the Taliban were abiding by Mr. Baradar’s assurances. The team documented a rise in insurgent attacks instead. U.S. Army Col. Brad Moses, who served as deputy to the U.S. military commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Scott Miller, briefed about the alarming data on intensifying violence during regular calls with the White House, the State Department, the CIA and other U.S. government agencies.

“It never reduced,” he said. The Taliban would claim to the U.S. that these attacks were either carried out by spoilers or criminals when confronted with the evidence, he added.

The Afghan government, meanwhile, instructed its forces, cooped up in isolated bases and outposts, to stop offensive operations during the talks and engage in what it called “active defense.” The loss of initiative handed over a critical advantage to the insurgents, said Lt. Gen. Imam Nazar Behboud, who commanded the Afghan army’s Kandahar corps.

“This meant that you just had to stand there and wait until the Taliban attacked you. No matter how much you got killed, you just had to wait,” he said. “There were huge casualties. The troops were tired, they were not receiving any backup from Kabul, and they lost their trust in the central government.”

By October, the Taliban had gathered a huge force in the south and launched a wide-scale assault on Helmand’s provincial capital of Lashkar Gah. The U.S. intervened with airstrikes to prevent the city’s collapse. Weeks later, the Taliban moved toward Kandahar, capturing the Arghandab district on the edge of the country’s second-largest city. Another torrent of U.S. airstrikes stopped further advances. Both sides accused each other of violating the Doha agreement.

Still, the Taliban stuck to their promise not to strike American targets, showing that they could exercise discipline over their fighters when they wanted to. Despite sustaining heavy casualties in the airstrikes, the Taliban leaders calculated it wasn’t in their interest to disrupt an American withdrawal they viewed as inevitable.

“We convinced our fighters that, as our negotiations with the Americans are under way, we will not fire a single bullet at the Americans. We proved that we can uphold our treaties,” said Mohammad Farouk Ansari, a member of the Taliban’s military commission that united some 50 top commanders from across the country. “We told each other at the time that it was a victory. When the Americans started closing their outposts and evacuating their bases, we knew that the country was ours, today or tomorrow.”

U.S. officials still wonder whether they had been played by Mr. Baradar’s promises or whether the chief Taliban negotiator himself was being used by the insurgency’s real leadership to lull the U.S. and Kabul into complacency.

‘It was always hard to tell if the Taliban were serious about a political settlement or not,” said Carter Malkasian, who was part of Mr. Khalilzad’s team as a representative from the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “One possibility is that they never meant it. That they were saying what we needed to hear. We may learn, like we have about the Vietnamese negotiations, that they never had any intention of conceding.”

The U.S. presidential election was held on Nov. 3 and Mr. Trump lost. While fighting to overturn the results, he ordered the Pentagon to pull remaining troops out of Afghanistan and appointed a new defense secretary, Chris Miller, a former Green Beret and vocal war skeptic, to carry out the plan. Mr. Miller, along with other close advisers, convinced the president to keep a downsized force of 2,500 troops in Afghanistan to avoid the country’s collapse, which they said would hurt Mr. Trump if he wanted to run for office again.

Around that time, Mr. Khalilzad circulated proposals for a new interim government that would be equally split between the Taliban and representatives of the republic. The proposal, he said, didn’t specify who would be in charge.

Mr. Miller said the unspoken goal of retaining a small force to keep the Kabul government afloat was to eventually force Mr. Ghani to cut a power-sharing deal. “And let’s be honest, the Taliban probably would have had about 14 seats in the cabinet. And Ghani probably would have had four. He probably would have had sports and recreation. Probably would have had, like, roads and sewers,” Mr. Miller added.

The Afghan president hoped the American determination to withdraw from Afghanistan would end with Mr. Trump’s term on Jan. 20. He was so convinced that the new Biden administration wouldn’t follow through on the Doha agreement that he declined to see Mr. Khalilzad when the American envoy came to Afghanistan that January. Mr. Ghani subsequently rejected Mr. Khalilzad’s power-sharing plan, which was promptly leaked to the media, and kept refusing to engage in meaningful talks in Doha.

“It was us, the republic, that were lingering. The Taliban were much more flexible,” said Fatima Gailani, a negotiator for the republic who belongs to one of the country’s most influential families. “Negotiations need a give and take, and an honorable compromise is absolutely fine, but that was not the case at all. It was purposefully lingering and waiting for Biden to come. Why were they thinking that Biden would bring a miracle, I don’t know.”

Mr. Khalilzad gave his proposal to Mr. Baradar, who agreed to consider it but offered no formal response.

By then, Taliban commanders on the ground, emboldened by their military successes and the looming American withdrawal, had little desire to share power with their enemies. “The strategy of a colonizer, when it is forced out of a country, is to leave its offspring behind, so as not to break the chain of colonization. The Americans wanted to keep a parallel government here, for the Taliban and the rest to have equal power,” said Mr. Ansari, the Taliban military commission member who operated southeast of Kabul. “We did not agree with this from the very beginning. We said that we’re the rulers in the country. The country is our home. We don’t accept a second ruler in our home.”

Mr. Ghani’s hopes about Mr. Biden were quickly dashed. The new president had advocated withdrawing from Afghanistan back when he served as Mr. Obama’s vice president, and showed little inclination to reverse Mr. Trump’s deal.

For months after Mr. Biden took office, interagency officials held an endless series of meetings on how to mitigate risks from the pullout. Abandoning the Doha agreement, the White House calculated, would force the Taliban to resume attacks on American forces, requiring a major troop increase with no end in sight. As for the peace talks shepherded by Mr. Khalilzad in Doha, the White House concluded that chances of progress were too slim to justify delaying the withdrawal.

“There is not a lot of evidence that either side treated those negotiations in Doha in good faith,” said a current senior Biden administration official who was involved in the decision-making.

On April 12, the Taliban refused to participate in a peace conference that the U.S. was trying to convene under the sponsorship of the United Nations in Turkey, fearing that they would be forced to make concessions.

Two days later, Mr. Biden announced that all U.S. forces would be out of Afghanistan by Sept. 11, regardless of whether the Taliban and the Afghan reach a political deal or any other developments on the ground, a move that removed the conditionality attached to the 2020 Doha agreement.

“We will not conduct a hasty rush to the exit. We’ll do it…responsibly, deliberately and safely,” Mr. Biden said in the White House’s Treaty Room that day. “More and endless American military force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan government.”

Kabul was stunned. The following afternoon, Mr. Ghani convened top Afghan security officials to discuss Mr. Biden’s bombshell. The army chief of staff wondered how the Afghan military could continue servicing its aircraft once American advisers and contractors left. Mr. Ghani, according to a person present at the meeting, was calm and said he was working on securing continuing U.S. support.

Vice President Amrullah Saleh, who used to work closely with the CIA, refused to believe that Mr. Biden would actually withdraw all U.S. forces. Could Mr. Biden’s announcement simply be a pressure tactic to force Kabul make concessions to the Taliban in Doha, he wondered, according to people present.

Mr. Saleh, Afghanistan’s former intelligence chief, told the Journal his U.S. interlocutors had been assuring until the last moment that Washington wouldn’t abandon his administration. “There were so many occasions in which I asked the visiting dignitaries, diplomats, intelligence officials, generals and members of the U.S. intelligentsia if the U.S. would hand over Afghanistan to the Taliban,” Mr. Saleh said after Kabul’s fall to the Taliban. “The answer would be outright no, with nuances explained later but still implying no.”

As members of Mr. Ghani’s inner circle continued to cling to illusions, Afghan army and police field commanders drew a different conclusion: The end was nigh. Survival meant striking private deals with the Taliban and preparing for a rainy day meant selling off their units’ ammunition, food and fuel on the black market.

By May, the Taliban started taking one district after another, often without a fight, allowing government troops to go home unharmed and giving them pocket money for the road. Still, in accordance with verbal commitments given to Mr. Khalilzad, the insurgents refrained from seizing any of the country’s 34 provincial capitals. In Doha, Taliban negotiator Mohammad Nabi Omari, another former Guantánamo inmate who is affiliated with the Haqqani network, hashed out a transition proposal with a narrow circle of Afghan republic representatives.

Under the proposed deal, the Taliban’s supreme leader, Mr. Hibatullah, would become Afghanistan’s head of state but the country would turn into a constitutional monarchy of sorts, governed under the 1964 constitution promulgated by King Zahir Shah, with an elected parliament. Ms. Gailani, who was involved in this negotiation, joked that Mr. Hibatullah, who hadn’t been seen in public for years and widely presumed to be dead, was a perfect head of state. Her Taliban interlocutor assured her that Mr. Hibatullah was very much alive. Both sides agreed to keep the planned agreement secret.

“They were not easy. There were things on which they would absolutely not compromise upon. They would never accept the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. They would never accept our constitution,” said Ms. Gailani. “But at least 60% of our values could be rescued. Our flag could be rescued.”

Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, the lead Afghan government negotiator in Doha and a former defense minister and intelligence chief who regularly briefed Mr. Ghani on the talks, said he believed the plan presented by Mr. Omari was just an individual idea and not a solid proposal backed by the entire Taliban leadership.

In late June, Mr. Ghani flew to Washington in a last-ditch effort to persuade the U.S. of the need to keep providing support. Mr. Biden agreed to receive Mr. Ghani in the White House only if he came with Dr. Abdullah, then holding the title of head of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation. “We’re going to stick with you. And we’re going to do our best to see to it you have the tools you need,” Mr. Biden promised in joint remarks.

The American president’s April withdrawal decision “has made everybody recalculate and reconsider,” Mr. Ghani chimed in. “The Afghan nation is in an 1861 moment, like President Lincoln, rallying to the defense of the republic. It’s a choice of values—the values of an exclusionary system or an inclusionary system.”

Ms. Gailani met Mr. Ghani in Washington during that trip and briefed him on proposals discussed with Mr. Omari and other Taliban negotiators. Mr. Ghani encouraged her to continue the talks, she said. “I thought, good, he decided to be the de Klerk of Afghanistan, not the Saddam or Gadhafi,” she recalled. “It was clear that this was the end, but at least it could have been a decent end. At least the institutions, the army, the police would not have collapsed.”

Yet, in following weeks, Mr. Ghani continued playing for time. “He lingered and lingered, which just made things more difficult,” Ms. Gailani said.

In July, a senior foreign envoy visited Mr. Ghani in Kabul. The Afghan president was defiant, boasting about the strength of government forces massed in the city and saying that the Taliban would suffer 50,000 casualties should they attempt to attack the capital. Still, he added that he instructed his bodyguards to give him a lethal injection should he face the risk of being captured by the Taliban, according to the envoy.

Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the head of U.S. Central Command, flew to Kabul later that month to meet Mr. Ghani, publicly promising intensified airstrikes in support of Afghan forces. “Taliban victory is not inevitable,” he said at the time. In private, Gen. McKenzie told Mr. Ghani that Mr. Biden was still evaluating options for continuing to provide air support to Afghan forces from bases in the Persian Gulf after the withdrawal.

The Republic Collapses

In early August, the Taliban’s military commission chief, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, gathered military commanders in the insurgent stronghold of Aryub Zazi in the eastern Paktia province. The time to capture provincial capitals had come, Mr. Zakir announced, but the Taliban should take their time and not rush.

“It was decided that we should enter the cities cautiously, targeting the provinces that fall an easy prey,” said Hajji Qari Osman Ibrahimi, a member of the Taliban military commission who attended the meeting. “And we were told not to enter Kabul, because we had promised so to the Americans.”

As it turned out, almost all the cities were easy prey, and just a week later the Taliban were at the doorstep of the Afghan capital. Dr. Abdullah held another round of meetings in Doha and returned to Kabul to brief Mr. Ghani and other political leaders: A transitional arrangement that would save at least some of the Afghan republic’s institutions was still possible. The Taliban had a strong incentive to cooperate. The U.S. had assured the insurgents that such a transitional government would get diplomatic recognition and would have access to billions of dollars in Afghan central-bank reserves and continued foreign aid.

Dr. Abdullah, Mr. Karzai, Islamist warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and other Afghan leaders planned to fly to Doha to strike such an agreement but needed Mr. Ghani’s commitment to resign first. Once again, the Afghan president stalled for time, haggling over the composition of the delegation and insisting that close aides such as Mr. Mohib participate. The delegation was tentatively scheduled to leave Aug. 16.

Amin Karim, a senior member of Mr. Hekmatyar’s party and a former adviser to Mr. Ghani, went to see the Afghan president in the palace that week.

“It’s game over,” he started the meeting, in English. Mr. Ghani, flustered, accused Mr. Karim of defeatism, saying that Kabul was safe and that tens of thousands of elite troops from all over the country were ready to protect the Afghan capital.

On Aug. 14, Mr. Wilson, the American envoy, also met with Mr. Ghani. By then, the major cities of Kandahar, Herat and Ghazni had fallen to the Taliban. He says he was struck by how calm the Afghan leader appeared. Reporters were invited to cover the meeting, which was unusual. Taliban commanders in the mountains around the city had no inkling that just hours later they would be in control of the Afghan capital.

“We were sure that provinces would fall without any resistance, but we weren’t sure about Kabul. Bluffing by the government had given us a sense that there would be a fight,” said Mohammad Salim Saad, a senior commander of the Haqqani network’s Badri force who oversaw insurgent operations within the capital. “We worried that a battle for Kabul would destroy the city.”

The morning of Aug. 15, some armed Taliban sympathizers started appearing in the city. On Washington’s request, the Taliban issued a statement in Doha that requested all Taliban units to stay away. Mr. Wilson ordered all remaining personnel to move from the U.S. Embassy compound in Kabul’s Green Zone to the airport, then held by the American military.

Remaining staff were told to leave their personal effects behind and were allowed just one suitcase. Mr. Wilson left his suits and shoes at the embassy, and packed the essentials, including a book that had just arrived via Amazon delivery. As he boarded the chopper to leave for the airport, the pilots told him that Mr. Ghani had been spotted fleeing Afghanistan by helicopter about 30 minutes earlier.

“He gave us no hint that he was leaving. Not a scintilla of a hint that he was going to leave the country,” Mr. Wilson recalled. Mr. Ghani, in a statement released weeks later from the United Arab Emirates, where he now resides, said his unexpected departure “was the only way to keep the guns silent and save Kabul.”

In Doha, senior Taliban representatives gathered on the 21st floor of Qatar’s foreign ministry for a meeting with the country’s special envoy who oversaw Afghan affairs, Mutlaq al Qahtani. In disbelief, they watched the news of Mr. Ghani’s escape. Would the U.S. military want to secure Kabul for two weeks, to enable an orderly transition, they asked.

Mr. Baradar, Mr. Khalilzad, Gen. McKenzie and other officials met in Doha that afternoon. “There was a sense of anarchy coming. Law and order was falling apart in Kabul,” Mr. Khalilzad recalled. Following Mr. Ghani’s escape, the rest of the Afghan republic’s ministers, including the minister of defense, also rushed to the airport to flee the country.

The Biden administration wasn’t interested in taking potentially open-ended responsibility for the besieged Afghan capital and its five million residents. “It’s not my job. My job is to safely withdraw my forces,” Gen. McKenzie replied to the Taliban proposal, according to Mr. Khalilzad. “If you attack, we’ll defend ourselves.”

By 8 p.m., Taliban units, mostly those belonging to the Haqqani network, started entering the city, reinforcing the first echelon of clandestine operatives who had seized strategic locations.

Instead of a negotiated transfer of power with international recognition that had been discussed with the U.S., the Taliban found themselves running a government with empty coffers, subjected to American sanctions and denied a United Nations seat.

Mr. Baradar, widely expected to become the Taliban’s new head of government, was marginalized as one of three deputy prime ministers, and later disappeared from view for weeks. His verbal promises to American and other international negotiators, such as a commitment to ensure girls’ education, were no longer binding for Afghanistan’s new regime.

Instead, the Haqqanis and the southern military commanders under Mullah Omar’s son Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob emerged as the factions with real authority in Kabul.

A newly published Taliban calendar, for the Islamic year that began in August 2021, no longer carried Mr. Hibatullah’s promise of not seeking a monopoly on power. Instead, it pledged to enforce a “pure Islamic system.” A pile of wrecked Humvees left behind and a fleet of Chinooks flying away with tattered American flags illustrated the message.

Gordon Lubold contributed to this article.

Biography

Yaroslav Trofimov is the chief foreign-affairs correspondent of The Wall Street Journal. A native of Ukraine, he joined the Journal in 1999 as Rome correspondent and has since covered major stories around the world, serving as Middle East and Africa correspondent, as roving Asia correspondent based in Singapore, as Kabul bureau chief responsible for Afghanistan and Pakistan coverage, and as a columnist focused on the greater Middle East. He played a key role in the Journal’s coverage of historic events, such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq and its aftermath, the campaign against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria a decade later, and the global impact of a more assertive China. Mr. Trofimov won the Overseas Press Club citation last year for his analysis of the Covid pandemic’s impact on the world, shared in the OPC prize for his coverage of India, and was part of the Journal’s team that was a Pulitzer finalist for their coverage of Turkey. Mr. Trofimov is the author of two non-fiction books, "Faith at War" and "Siege of Mecca," which has been published in several languages around the world and won the Washington Institute gold medal for the best book on the Middle East. He holds an MA from New York University and is currently based in Dubai.

Winners

Prize Winner in International Reporting in 2022:

Staff of The New York Times, notably Azmat Khan, contributing writer

For courageous and relentless reporting that exposed the vast civilian toll of U.S.-led airstrikes, challenging official accounts of American military engagements in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. (Moved by the Board from the Public Service category, where it was also nominated.) International Reporting

Finalists

Nominated as finalists in International Reporting in 2022:

Staff of The New York Times

For richly immersive coverage of the sudden, chaotic fall of the Afghan government and the return of the Taliban, highlighting the experience of Afghans as well as the reporters themselves.

Staff of The New York Times

For a stunning investigation of the assassination of Haiti’s president that uncovered pervasive corruption across government, security forces and business elites, including a likely motive for the murder: a secret dossier the president was compiling of powerful arms and drug traffickers.

The Jury

Ron Nixon(Chair)

Global Investigations Editor, Associated Press

Indira Lakshmanan

Senior Executive Editor and Vice President for News and Features, National Geographic Media

Matthew Kaminski

Editor-in-Chief, Politico

Megha Rajagopalan*

International Correspondent, BuzzFeed News

Graeme Wood

National Correspondent, The Atlantic

Winners in International Reporting

Megha Rajagopalan, Alison Killing and Christo Buschek of BuzzFeed News

For a series of clear and compelling stories that used satellite imagery and architectural expertise, as well as interviews with two dozen former prisoners, to identify a vast new infrastructure built by the Chinese government for the mass detention of Muslims. (Moved by the Board from the Explanatory Reporting category, where it was also entered and nominated.)

2022 Prize Winners

Jennifer Senior of The Atlantic

For an unflinching portrait of a family’s reckoning with loss in the 20 years since 9/11, masterfully braiding the author's personal connection to the story with sensitive reporting that reveals the long reach of grief.